Coal companies wait for the two giants to adjust prices next month

The comprehensive average price of the 5,500 kcal thermal coal circulating in the Bohai Sea recently released on April 23 closed at 532 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous report period.

Although the port coal price has shown signs of a significant recovery after the end of March, the China Securities Journal reporter learned from the industry that a public coal company is still pessimistic about the future coal price trend. Now, coal companies are most interested in knowing that Shenhua and China Coal giants next month's coal preferential policies. Industry analysts believe that as large-scale coal companies do not sell satisfactorily in the first quarter, if the preferential promotions continue, the rhythm of coal prices will remain at the bottom.

Price goes flat

In the current period, the mainstream transaction prices of 5,500 kcal/kg thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, Guotou Jingtang Port, Jingtang Port, Tianjin Port [-0.12% Funds Report] and Huanghua Port were reported separately at 525― 535 yuan / ton, 525-535 yuan / ton, 535-545 yuan / ton, 530-540 yuan / ton, 530-540 yuan / ton and 530-540 yuan / ton. Among them, the trading price range of SDIC Jingtang Port and Tianjin Port was RMB 5/t higher than that of the previous reporting period; the trading price range of Huanghua Port was RMB 5/t lower than the previous reporting period; the transaction prices of other three ports The interval is the same as the previous reporting period.

From the collection and calculation results of the transaction prices of the six ports in the Bohai Rim, in the report period, among the 24 port specifications, the number of port specifications with the same price increased from 17 in the previous period to 18; The number of products decreased from 5 in the previous period to 3; the number of port specifications decreased in price increased from 2 in the previous period to 3 in the previous period.

According to industry sources, the number of port specifications with a flat price has increased slightly, and the number of port specifications with rising and falling prices has been at a relatively low level and the number is equivalent, indicating that the prices of thermal coal in various varieties in the region are relatively stable.

Market outlook is hard to be optimistic

Although the smoothing of coal prices in the port has given coal companies a temporary relief, many people in the industry are not optimistic about the coal price outlook. Many coal companies told the China Securities Journal that they are currently looking forward to the upcoming May preferential policies of Shenhua and China Coal. If large coal enterprises cancel the preferential treatment, they will bring happiness to small coal companies.

“But from the current signs, due to the poor sales of large-scale enterprises in the first quarter, in order to complete the sales target, preferential policies will generally remain unchanged.” Liu Dongnao, an analyst at ZhuoChuang Information Coal Industry, told the China Securities Journal that “even if the preferential policies are cancelled It will also be tentative and will not be completely cancelled at one time."

In addition, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway [-0.74% fund research report] will be overhauled on April 30th, resulting in the reduction of port coal price inventory will also disappear. With the advent of summer, the increase in the output of hydropower has also made thermal power companies afraid to accumulate more coal inventory. "As a whole, the driving force behind the rise in coal prices is very weak," Liu Dongna analyzed.